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January 27, 2012

January 26, 2012

Doth The Fan Protest Too Much?

Now that my technical issues have been remedied, and TMM is back up at full speed, it’s time to get back to substantive issues pertaining to hockey and the Blue Jackets.  Two events have conspired to make this a timely return — Aaron Portzline’s post on Puck-Rakers this morning, and the scheduled fan protest for this Saturday.   Ever looking for fertile fields of analysis, these represent a virtual mother lode for me, so let’s dig in. 

I want to start with the Portzline piece, because it really encapsulates a lot of the things that are going through everyone’s mind.  As anyone who follows me is aware, I have not historically been a big fan of the Dispatch coverage (though I thought Tom Reed was a real loss to the paper) and have serious issues with some of the things they do, but  today’s piece provides a solid foundation for discussion.

Let’s start off with where I part company with Portzline’s views.  First, he is a bit late to the game on this revelation, as this blog and others have been making similar stands for some time now. (For example, see Keeping Focus  ,  . . . And Then There Were Eight, Demolition Zone Can You Hear Me Now? among others) His protestation that “To be clear, it is not the place of this blog – certainly this reporter –  to call for anybody’s head”  is just a tad ingenuous, as there was no such reticence displayed when it came to overtly campaigning for the hiring of Kevin Dineen, the signing of Sheldon Souray and similar moves.  So, this is really fairly selective advocacy on his part. 

Finally, I think he engages in a bit of Monday-morning quarterbacking to make the situation seem far more dire as the season began than it really was, and in the process provide Scott Arniel with a fairly large pass on what has transpired.  It’s easy to sit among the ashes of the house and complain that the place was a fire-trap, forgetting that you spent a fortune to build it and everyone loved it before the fire.  With the off-season acquisitions of Carter, Wisniewski and Martinek , the potential contributions of Johansen and Atkinson, the re-signing of Umberger and the anticipated maturations of Marc Methot and Grant Clitsome, this was an organization that — on paper — looked like it could do some serious damage.  While the question marks in goal were there,  I’ll take issue with his characterization that Arniel suspected that it would take years to clean up the mess.  Quite simply, Arniel was ill-equipped to handle adversity, abandoned an offensive-minded strategy too early, and mismanaged the talent he did have at his disposal. 

 Now, you could quibble and say that things have been worse, as at least this club, when healthy, has some tangible assets to either utilize or trade as part of the restructuring process.  That has not, as a rule, been the case.  However, from the perspectives of pure numbers and the negative gestalt of the Blue Jackets community, I’ll concur that things are at rock bottom.

The fundamental point of the piece, with which I concur, is that the core problems are structural — not just matters of underperforming players.  I’m on record already as indicating that the nuclear option is not necessary at the player level, but that fundamental changes in the front office need to take place, and Portzline brings this to the fore.  Structurally, the club is still paying the price for the Doug MacLean era — and this is not an idle dig at DMac.  When you have an organization — any organization — that is so dominated by a single individual for such a long period of time, the transition can be horrendous.  Moving from a structure built on a cult of personality to one premised on distinct roles & responsibilities is a tricky process, and  — as we have all seen — is susceptible to missteps.  In a bizarre way, the handling of this season is a microcosm of the issues that the front office has experienced since 2007.  Coming into camp, it was known that a lot of new pieces were going to need to be integrated. Given that fact, why were 60+ players invited to camp, requiring weeks of winnowing and fragmentation, when only 25 or so had a realistic chance of making the squad?   There was little real time to coalesce as a team — an issue that was only exacerbated by the injuries to Carter, Martinek, Huselius & Dekanich, as well as the Wisniewski suspension.  In a similar way, everyone seemed to minimize the need for serious experience at multiple levels of the organization — and we are presently paying the price, as Portzline properly notes.

I also concur with Portzline (and have previously mentioned) that Craig Patrick is a key cog in this whole enterprise.  There has been too much silence concerning Patrick and his role, which leads me to believe that more is going on behind the scenes than is being made public.  While Patrick may not want a long-term role with the organization, he is certainly the guy to steer a GM transition and the insertion of a senior hockey role above the GM on a permanent basis.   This does not necessarily involve replacing Priest, whose primary role is on the business side of things, and handles that side well.  He’ll be the first one to tell you that he’s not a “hockey guy”, which again supports the theory that the issue is structural.  Bring in that “hockey guy”, whether it’s Patrick or somebody else, to work at a peer level with Priest. 

So, Portzline and I agree that these fundamental changes need to happen — and happen sooner than later.  It is here where much of the core discontent arises (hence the call for the protest), and it involves issues of both timing and communication.  This is professional sports, not college football, and that involves some necessary evils in implementing change.  For a hockey club to fundamentally change its character, you hire & fire coaches, GM’s and related personnel, and make changes on the ice via trade, draft or free agency.  That’s it in a nutshell.  Dealing with the off-ice personnel first, the urgency of a Howson dismissal depends largely on a) who is really calling the shots right now, and b) what the plan is for the trade deadline.  As I’ve noted in my prior articles, Howson’s rather sudden 180 degree flip on the Arniel firing was grossly out of character, and could be viewed as a strong signal that Patrick and ownership are pulling the strings from behind the curtain.  If that is so, then the urgency to move Howson is not so dire.  Let Patrick guide Howson through the trade deadline, then bring somebody in to prepare for the draft and free agency.  Similarly, if the plan is to simply moves the impending free agents now, and wait until June to start the major dealing, then the urgency also diminishes.  Why bring in a relief pitcher to intentionally walk a guy?  The guy you’re replacing has already shown he can miss the plate . . .

In terms of the players, change can’t come in isolation.  The draft and free agency come at specific times, and their very structure dictates what you can do.  On the trade front, you need trading partners, who have compatible needs at the right time.  Sure, in my view the organization has handicapped itself by underutilizing some of the younger assets, but for the type of fundamental changes that are necessary, you need time . . . and more than a little luck.

Behind this, of course, is the issue of communication.  A huge part of the fan frustration right now is the perceived inaction on the part of the organization.  Few will seriously condemn an organization for having plans blow up — this is pro sports, and that stuff happens all the time.  Meaningful change happens over the course of years and decades, not weeks.  Fans don’t like to hear that, particularly fans who are used to the three-year recycle of college athletes.  I watched awful 49er and Giants teams for years before they found success.  The S.J. Sharks were pathetic in their early years, and still have the same number of Stanley Cups as the Blue Jackets.  However, much of that fan dismay can be allayed by properly communicating what is going on, and this is something the Blue Jackets struggle with.

As I’ve noted before, you’re never going to hear a public statement of “no confidence” before somebody gets fired.  You’ll hear when they’re gone, not before.  This is as it should be.  These are big boys — they know when their head is on the block (and Howson has been looking and acting like he knows just that lately).  Nobody should expect that a detailed rundown of the complete strategy should be thrown out there in  a press conference.  However, fans  — and the hockey community at large — should be made aware that the organization is acutely aware of the situation, is exploring options, etc.   It’s a little thing, and is ultimately relatively benign, but it can stave off a whole host of problems — such as the perception that the organization doesn’t care, is clueless or has other priorities.   All of those inferences have been made, not just by the fan base, but by hockey commentators and analysts around the NHL.   While the club has an admirable record and reputation for being able to preserve confidences, that trait is haunting them right now.

Which brings me to the protest, and  I’m not going to spend a lot of time on this.  Maybe it’s because I went through the protest era over “real” topics, like Vietnam, Watergate and Apartheid.  Maybe it’s because I saw firsthand that the vast majority of protests involve a very small component of people who are passionate and knowledgeable about a cause, a larger contingent who are simply there to be seen, and others who just like stirring up trouble or skip work/school.  (At least this protest is on Saturday)  The point of protest is to call attention to something that you perceive is not getting attention.  So, consistent with my note above on communication, I get why some might be interested in doing this.

My view, however, is that this is ultimately a futile act, and one that — on balance– will do more harm than good.  Keep in mind that I’m a Day 1 Season Ticket Holder, Seat License Owner, etc.  — for multiple lower bowl seats.  So, just like the folks Michael Arace highlighted in his piece the other day, I have a lot of monetary skin in this game.  However, I also know that the organization is acutely aware of the issues, and while I don’t have first hand knowledge of what is being considered, I think I know the players well enough to know that they are not simply ignoring things.   Am I frustrated and angry?  Sure, though probably more disappointed than angry.  See, I understand that when I purchase tickets to a professional team, there are no guarantees.  There are injuries, bad bounces, poor performances and other things that can conspire to deprive your team of victories.  How do you think I feel about the 49ers choice to draft Alex Smith over Aaron Rogers? 

If you are going to the protest, what is it precisely that you’re protesting?  Losing?  Underperforming  players?  Ownership inaction?  If your answer is either of the first two, then stay home.  If you are just a fan of winning, you’ll never be satisfied.  You’ll jump on and off the fan bus from year to year (maybe game to game), but will ultimately be disappointed.  Ditto for protesting underperforming players.  Every team has them every year.  The Cubs have been working on that streak for over a century. If it’s the third one, I can understand a little better, but I’d still stay home.  Your presence outside Nationwide Arena is not going to alter the organization’s level of awareness, nor hasten the ultimate action.  That’s simply a fact. 

Looking around the Twitterverse today, the hockey world has already jumped on Portzline’s article and is using it to flog the franchise and the city.  That’s part of what happens when you go through these times, and I get it.  But why voluntarily exacerbate that impact by participating in a largely pointless act?  Yes, as Portzline notes, it may never have been worse, but we don’t have to increase the level of stagnation and make the emergence more painful than necessary.  As hard as it may be to believe, we will all get through this and there are better days ahead for the franchise.  Teams pick themselves up from the scrap heap and accomplish things every year, and the Blue Jackets will be no different.  Sure, it takes time, but it will happen.  That’s not easily digested in a world of instant gratification, but it’s true nonetheless.

So, with apologies to Shakespeare for my title, and even though I concur that immediate change is necessary, I’ll be passing on the protest this Saturday, as I think it is more harmful than beneficial.  Let’s see what the coming weeks hold.  Stay tuned. 

 

January 25, 2012

Back In The Game!

by Jeff Little — Categories: The Game of HockeyLeave a comment

After an unscheduled hiatus, due to some complications involved in switching hosts and servers for the blog, I am back in business.  My apologies for the interruption, but with Customer Support being . . . offshore, shall we say . . . communications concerning the problem came at 24 hour intervals.  Still a lot of tinkering to do, but the core functionality is in place.  Going forward, this will provide me with a lot more flexibility to do some new and different things with the blog.  As always, send me any ideas you might have.

I’ll be catching up with things later today, then have a few features that will be interspersed throughout the All Star Break (are there any All Stars actually playing this year?)

Anyway, this was just a quick “I’m still alive” post.  More to come later today.  Stay tuned.

 

January 20, 2012

Frozen Friday Follies

It’s a brisk 18 degrees outside as I put fingers to keyboard — perfect hockey weather.   Time to get caught up on some miscellaneous thoughts/events/ideas that wander through my brain from time to time. I missed most of last night’s game against the Predators, due to other commitments, so won’t attempt to comment on the quality of the effort at the individual level.  I did catch the first period, and was generally pleased with the effort, though the Curse of Pekka Rinne appears to magically deflect all Blue Jackets shots that approach the net.  I looked at the goals (the two non-empty netters), and not much Mason could have done on either one — though you might fault his anticipation a bit on the power play goal.  Still, not a bad effort, though he still looks very uncomfortable in net.

Fedor Tyutin was getting the blame for the Erat goal, but a review of the replay suggests that Nikitin needs to at least share in a big part of the culpability.   Pahlsson wins the faceoff to Russell, who tips it back to Tyutin against the wall.  As defensemen so often do, Tyutin was slinging the puck to his partner in the middle to open the ice and avoid being trapped against the wall.  However, for some inexplicable reason, Nikitin was not watching the play, and took off up ice just before Tyutin passes. One of those things in hockey, where the magnitude of the result is far worse than the individual sins committed.

Sad note that Radek Martinek is done for the year.  While he wasn’t terribly impressive in the early games, neither was anybody else, and his performance in pre-season was good enough to make me want to see more.  He never suited up for a Blue Jackets regular season win.  Brett Lebda was signed with the big club, and the former Red Wing will don #23 for the Jackets.  With Dane Byers being sent down to Springfield (still owing the NHL one game of his suspension), this gives the Blue Jackets two reserve defenseman on the roster, and no forwards.  With Grant Clitsome having been scratched for five consecutive games, and Lebda being signed, the omens are not good for the guy with the most abused name in hockey.

In the “Create Your Own Opportunities — If You Can Get Away With It” Department — I was looking at some film from the Edmonton game yesterday, and caught something I had missed earlier.  On MacKenzie’s game winning goal, he inadvertently catches Peckham, who was stepping out to cover Gillies, squarely in the left ear with his stick as he is driving down the middle.  Peckam grabs the side of his face and looks down, just as Gillies delivers the pass to MacKenzie.  Whatever works . . .

Captain Rick Nash’s jersey is being retired today by the London Knights.  Dave Maetzold & Rob Mixer will be there, so I’ll be interested to read their reports.  I’ll add some links when those are up.

No home hockey until February 7 for the Blue Jackets.  Saturday in Detroit, Monday in Nashville and Tuesday in Tampa Bay.  Then a week off for the All – Star break, and a three gamer in California.  This would be a perfect time to make some moves, so let’s see if anything develops.

What about the Buffalo Sabres?  They were my pre-season pick to win it all, based upon what I thought were some really solid off-season acquisitions, some already strong offensive talent, and a solid goaltender in Ryan Miller.  You have to wonder if the failure to get all that talent to work together will signal the death knell for Lindy Ruff — the longest tenured coach in the NHL.  If so, teams will be climbing over one another to ink him as their next head coach.  (Yes, J.P., I’m talking to you.)

Speaking of other teams, St. Louis is 28-12-6, and the surprise of the league.  Here are some numbers that should sound more than vaguely familiar to Blue Jackets fans:  Of the 28 wins, 9 have come by shutout, 13 have been in one-goal games, and 5 have come with St. Louis scoring 2 goals or less.  Maybe St. Louis can ride that goaltending all the way, even through a brutal travel schedule in February and March.  Then again . . .

Interesting that there have been absolutely no leaks or other hints emanating from the Blue Jackets ownership meeting earlier this week.  Curious . . .

As usual, I’ll be joining Eric Smith and Lori Schmidt tonight on the Fire the Cannon podcast.  Use the link at left to access the show, which gets underway at 7:00 PM.  I’ll be available on the chat for the whole show, and will be on the air starting at 7:30.  Eric & Lori do a terrific job, so it’s well worth tuning in.

I’m working on some different things for the time around the break, including my second installment on our venture into the world of curling, a further look at the draft and what it really means, and such other things that pop into this otherwise barren brain.

R.I.P Etta James — now that woman could SING!

 

January 18, 2012

Grabbing Victory

The Blue Jackets snatched a victory from the Edmonton Oilers last night — in every sense of the word.  In a matchup between two teams who are better candidates for cameos on General Hospital than the playoffs, due to waves of injuries, the Blue Jackets started lethargically, but built momentum as the game progressed, finishing with a confident, smartly played third period.  When was the last time you read that?

The somewhat bizarre tone of the evening was set early, when Taylor Hall went down in the right corner during warm ups.  He was assisted from the ice, bleeding profusely from the head — he would ultimately take 30 stitches to the forehead above the eye and miss the game.  Such are the medical fortunes of Edmonton of late, with the Blue Jackets not far behind.

However, the way the game started, you would have thought that it was Columbus who was shell-shocked by the Hall injury.  The team was sluggish, loose and imprecise.  The Blue Jackets didn’t notch their first shot until the 5:29 mark, and didn’t get their second SOG until 13:08 had elapsed in the first.  In the meantime, Edmonton scored on their fourth and fifth shots of the evening, and had a 2 – 0 lead with just 8:50 gone in the first.  All of the ingredients for a full meltdown seemed to be in place.  

Tonight, however, was different.  Todd Richards took a timeout after Eager scored the Oilers’ second tally, and did not yell or scream (according to he post-game presser comments).  He brought the club back to focus, reminded them of what they needed to do, and sent them back on the ice to play.  They picked up the pace, registering five of the final seven shots in the period.

According to Richards, during the first intermission, he left the handling of team dynamics largely to the team’s leaders.  It was a matter-of-fact statement, buttressed by his expressed desire to have the players take ownership of their performance.  Apparently, it worked.

The Blue Jackets took control of the game from the drop of the puck in the second period.  They skated, were responsible with the puck and created a number of opportunities.  Just 2:37 in, Vermette and Johansen executed a picture-perfect give and go play, with Johansen nailing the puck into the far corner.  They continued to exert pressure, and provided solid defensive support for Curtis Sanford.

Sanford was very shaky early, and undoubtedly would like to have Edmonton’s first goal back.  The second was simply a great play by Eager to deke both Brassard and Sanford.  However, two shots got behind Sanford and were rescued by Savard and Vermette before they crossed the line, and another caromed off the crossbar over his shoulder.  He made some fine initial stops, including two great glove saves.  However, he continues to surrender massive rebounds on a fairly regular basis, raising the blood pressure of all in attendance.  Last night, the defense was able to clear them away.  The club won’t always have such good fortune.

The highlight moment came at the end of the second, with the Jackets on the power play.  Brassard — who was around the puck and crease all night long — cruised in front of the net and placed a backhand put-back of a Nash shot right on goal.  Dubnyk made the initial save, but the puck caromed off of Petry, back to Dubnyk, off his glove, and into the goal — with 0.8 seconds left on the clock.  Another example of the adage that good things happen when you put the puck on the net.

The Jackets picked up where they left off starting the third.  The fourth line got the starting nod last night, and took control of the puck off the faceoff.  Colton Gillies brought the puck down the left wing with speed, and spotted MacKenzie coming down the slot.  Gillies’ zipped a pass right to MacKenzie’s stick, and he potted the chance past a surprised Dubnyk.  Two goals in 33 seconds of ice time, and the Jackets had the lead.

For the first time in recent memory, the Blue Jackets managed the game from that point forward.  No “prevent defense” this time.  They continued to exert offensive pressure, while maintaining possession and defensive responsibility.  Dump-ins were controlled both as to time and location, and line changes were crisp.  Columbus outshot Edmonton 11- 8  in the third, and used offensive pressure to force the Oilers into a bad “too many men” penalty with just under a minute left, as Dubnyk was trying to get off the ice while Columbus brought the puck into the zone.

Edmonton pulled Dubnyk anyway, and after Dorsett fanned on a first opportunity at the empty net, he forced a turnover at center ice and escorted the puck all the way to the cage for the icing on the cake.  There was little palpable anxiety in the third, and the club showed a calm assurance that has been notably absent this year.

Part of the credit for this one has to go to Richards.  As I’ve noted before, he has a calm sense of control about him that the club desperately needs.  While he may be delegating some control to his players, one suspects that it is the overall sense of calm that perhaps allows them to take advantage of that delegation. 

Another Richards difference is his personnel management.  John Moore led all Blue Jackets last night with 23:37 of ice time, and Dorsett & Brassard led the forwards with just over 17 minutes of ice time each.  Overall, the time was spread out much more evenly, with Nikitin having just over 20 minutes, Tyutin a relatively leisurely 17:48 on the ice, and Nash a mere 15:56.  Brassard was seen taking a key defensive zone faceoff, and the top three lines were featured relatively equally at various strategic points in the game.   In short, both the coach and the players demonstrated game management skills that we haven’t really seen this season.

I have to inject a word here about Fedor Tyutin.  He takes a lot of grief from some quarters, but last night was just a typical virtuoso performance for the Russian blue-liner.  He engineered any number of seamless breakouts, brought offensive pressure to bear, and really fueled a lot of the opportunities from the back end.  Sure, he’ll make some mistakes sometimes, but he quietly contributes with every shift on the ice.  With players like Nikitin and Moore emerging, Tyutin has improved, just as Wisniewski was improving once Moore became his partner.  #51 doesn’t get the recognition he deserves.

So, the assembled crowd of 13,814 (not awful for a midweek game against a western Canadian team) was treated to another glimpse of what can be.  The Blue Jackets are now 2-2  under Richards, but have put together three strong efforts in a row.  Is it real, or just the “bounce” provided by a new coach?  Time will tell, but it’s encouraging to watch in the meantime.

 

January 16, 2012

Keeping Focus

Things have been busy in the Columbus Blue Jackets’ universe over the past 72 hours. Todd Richards made his head coaching debut in front of the home crowd, the club played two intriguing games against Phoenix and San Jose, and the media — traditional and electronic — has been filled with rumor, innuendo, speculation and downright petulance, over the various ills plaguing the Jackets and purported solutions.  The Dispatch led the way with a couple of Michael Arace commentaries and Portzline’s piece on Howson’s job security — all having the desired effect of inflaming various segments of the fan base.  Add in a scheduled meeting of Blue Jackets ownership today, and the pot is well and truly stirred.

I have purposely deferred writing this piece, wanting instead to see both games over the weekend, listen/read some other viewpoints, and consider the larger picture of where the club’s emphasis should be as the club moves into the All-Star Break and beyond.  With all of the turmoil over injuries, coaching, personnel moves (and non-moves), front office structure and the like, it’s easy to take one’s eye off the ball and forget what the ultimate goal of this entire enterprise is at this point in time.  While the owners’ meeting was likely spurred by the recently-approved arena deal, bringing Nationwide into the fold with a signficant ownership stake, you can bet that many of the topics I touch on here are on the table there as well. 

You see, it’s really easy to take your eye off the ball and lose focus when you are surrounded by turmoil and stress.  However, those are the times when the greatest degree of discipline and concentration are required.  In the context of the Blue Jackets, what are the things that should and should not receive attention as we head into the All-Star Break and beyond?  Let’s use recent events to paint this picture.

First, let’s quickly dispose of any notion that the playoffs are a subject of focus at this time.  While not mathematically impossible, I’ll commit to singing Hang on Sloopy at Broad & High if they do make the playoffs this season.  Even if the Blue Jackets were closer to playoff contention, I’d argue that some of the fundamental issues that have been exposed this year warrant a focus on the longer view anyway. 

In his piece on Saturday, Arace used the vehicle of former Blue Jackets presently with the Phoenix organization to serve as a framework upon which to hang the woes and ills of the Blue Jackets’ past.  Coming, as it did, on the heels of a victory over the Coyotes and Todd Richards’ home debut, many viewed the piece as ill-timed and mean-spirited.  Others saw it as a Seinfeldian Airing of Grievances.  My take is somewhere in between.

Keep in mind that the boys at the Dispatch have historically relished the opportunity to provide negative spin on virtually anything that happens with the organization.  It is perhaps a contrarian reaction to the Dispatch being a part owner of the franchise.  With Klesla, Torres, Brule and Whitney making returns to Nationwide — Klesla for the first time since the trade –  it was a natural journalistic vehicle to pursue, so I have no gripe with Arace on that score.  Did it need to go that negative?  No,  of course not. But again, that’s journalistic province, and given the predilection of the publication, it provided consistency and was undoubtedly timely.  Again, it falls into the “Just because you can write it doesn’t mean you should write it” category.  I found the tone a bit ingenuous, as Brule & Torres have certainly not flourished since leaving Columbus, and Klesla is performing as he did here — mediocre stuff for a mediocre team.  Whitney is a different story, as he has thrived since Doug MacLean refused his demand for a fourth year on a new deal.  That remains the single worst personnel gaffe in club history — yes, even worse than Scott LaChance. 

So, in my view, Arace’s Saturday piece was more unnecessary than objectionable, though I can see how some might characterize it as “piling on.”  What it does do, however, is highlight one thing that should not be the organizational focus going forward — namely, the past.  While fans, commentators (and bloggers) love to cast about the ashes of past fires, it is ultimately a pointless exercise.  Certainly, specific errors of the past need to be kept in mind to avoid repetition, but getting mired in the muck of past failures only guarantees future failure.  This is sports, and lots can go wrong.  If the Chicago Cubs focused on every misstep that has occurred since their last World Series victory in 1908, they’d never accomplish even the simplest task.

The problem with focusing on the past is essentially threefold First, human tendency is always to accentuate the negative, rather than the positive.  There were lots of bad things that happened in the past, but that doesn’t mean there is any causal connection with what is going on now.  Secondly, focusing too much on the past tends to lead to overreaction in the other direction.  Columbus got fed up with the carnival barker style of Doug MacLean, who oversold and underdelivered for years.  The natural, but not necessarily wise move was to go 180 degrees in the other direction, which they did with Scott Howson.  A smart, thoughtful man, Howson is on the hook now because of over-thinking and under-acting.  However, that leads to the third flaw of a focus on hindsight — and that’s making knee jerk decisions to appease an edgy fan base.  Howson’s ability to resist this temptation has been as admirable as his predecessor’s failure in the same regard.  The past is the past — whether you’re talking about MacLean, Zherdev, Filatov or Arniel.  Time to move on.

“Move on.”  Easy to say, not necessarily easy to do, and you need a framework to guide that movement.  You need to avoid the temptation to make long-term decisions based upon short-term phenomena — a particularly devilish trap in professional sports.  Ask the New York Islanders.  Rick DiPietro had played a grand total of two relatively full NHL seasons (51 & 63 starts) in 2003-04 and 2005-06, plus brief appearances in 2000-01 and 2002-03. In 05-06, he had a .900 save percentage and a 3.02 GAA. Not bad numbers for the first year after the lockout, given the new offensive emphasis, but not world beaters either.  At that point, he was rewarded with a 15-year contract paying him $4.5 milllion per year.

DiPietro played 62 games each in the 2006-07 and 2007-08 campaigns, posting a 2.82 GAA and .902 save percentage in the latter year.  Since then, DiPietro has appeared in a total 43 NHL games, and is done for this season with a sports hernia.  In the meantime, his contract continues to perk along until 2021. 

While the DiPietro example is an extreme one, to be sure, it demonstrates how neither short-term failure nor short-term success should be used as the foundation for long-term planning.  Craig Anderson was the hero in Colorado in 2009-10 . . . and traded to Ottawa the following year.  Howson has fallen victim to the lure of potential in the extensions to Clitsome and Methot, among others, and has perhaps held onto the illusion that is Steve Mason for too long.  These aren’t easy calls, but that’s what separates successful organizations from ones that struggle.

No, the Blue Jackets need a focus on the long-term vision, with rejuvenation of the structural, strategic and tactical components of the organization.  Let’s use the recent events as a vehicle to illustrate the point. 

A week ago, Todd Richards became the new head coach, albeit on an interim basis.  Whether you agreed or disagreed with the decision to part ways with Scott Arniel, the fact remains that the relationship was not working at any level.  Part of the structural change involves the coaching position, so Todd Richards has about half a season to show what he can do with the existing roster — injury-depleted as it may be.  While there’s usually a “bounce” effect with a new coach, making it hard to determine what is and isn’t organic change due to the new coach’s efforts, the weekend games provided some inklings of approach . . .and results.  Consider the following:

  • Derick Brassard & Antoine Vermette have flourished in the couple of games under Richards.  They have been given ice time and responsibility, and have used both to maximum advantage.  Nash has seemed more aggressive and quicker as well. 
  • In general, it seems that Richards is more willing to “let them play.”  The players seem less pre-occupied and more fluid on the ice. 
  • Interesting that Grant Clitsome has been a healthy scratch for both home games under Richards.  His failure to meet expectations this season has been a topic here and elsewhere, and it appears Richards may share that view.
  • The Jackets played in two vastly different styles of games.  The Phoenix game was an open affair, with no penalties to speak of, more open ice, and room to make plays all around.  The offense blossomed, with Brassard leading the way.  They lapsed into old habits as the game wore on, but did not quite reach the level of desperation we had seen in prior games.  In contrast, the San Jose game was a taut, tight checking affair, with huge blocks of time devoted to special teams.  The important thing about this game was that the Jackets got better as the game went along — something that has rarely been sighted this year.  But for some acrobatic saves by Greiss on three point-blank chances set up by Brassard, this would have been a regulation win for the guys with the cannon.
  • Richards conveys an image of being very much in control, which is a stark contrast to Arniel.  He acknowledges areas of need calmly, then moves to address them.  I think the players sense that as well, and it may well contribute to the greater sense of ease that has appeared in the last couple of games.

Naturally, more will be revealed over the course of the next three months or so.  On the one hand, no matter how well Richards does over the remainder of the season, it might not be enough if ownership dictates a complete overhaul.  He’ll undoubtedly be saddled with a markedly depleted roster in March, after the trade deadline, unless some activity gets underway soon to actually get full value for some of the club’s assets.  Richards will need to be evaluated less on the numbers the club posts, than on the way the club plays.

Structural change, of course, extends well beyond the coaching ranks.  Most observers, including me, believe that Scott Howson’s days are numbered, with the primary question being whether the axe will fall during the season, or at year’s end.  That may be paired with another decision relating to the Senior Hockey Operations post, which Craig Patrick is filling now.  Is Patrick just a “caretaker”, who will guide the organization through the process of getting new GM, Coach and Sr. Hockey Ops guy?  Or will he assume  one or more of those roles himself, at least on a temporary basis.  It seems strange to think that the organization would want Howson guiding the intervening personnel moves if he is going to be replaced at year-end. 

 From where I sit, you want somebody experienced as a GM in the league, but young enough to be able to provide some longevity in the position and relate to the players.  From a temperament standpoint, you’d want that middle ground between the flamboyance of Doug MacLean and the scholarly reticence of Scott Howson.  A tough fill?  Perhaps, but I have to believe that the bushes are being beaten for just that person.

It seems to me that the structural changes will need to happen in a top-to-bottom fashion, so that the Sr. Hockey Ops person would be in place first (if Patrick is not a long-term solution).  That individual would select the GM with the advice and consent of ownership, and that group would then decide on coaching positions, scouts, etc.  Eventually, however, you need to get down to the player level, and that’s where things get sticky.

In Sunday’s piece, Arace called for the “nuclear option” — blowing up the roster and effectively starting over.  He cites Pittsburgh and Chicago as two examples of how to do this successfully.  First, Arace is a little late to this debate, as it has been raging for a while here and on other blogs.  Secondly, I disagree with his characterization of Pittsburgh and Chicago as examples of the “nuclear option.”

Pittsburgh first.  Sure, they had a major transformation of their roster, but their talent was largely depleted and they had little coming up in their system.  They also had the rather significant advantage of four consecutive years with picks in the top 2 overall (2 #1 overall, 2 #2), which the leveraged into guys named Staal, Malkin, Crosby & Fleury.  That gives you all kinds of flexibility to do whatever else you want to with the remaining roster.

I also think Chicago is a poor example of how to engineer a roster — at least as an example of the “nuclear option”.   Chicago has been a salary cap mess for a long time, with each spring bringing a new episode of The Salary Purge.  Who can forget the Brian Campbell contract?  So, while Chicago has made tons of personnel moves, it has been more a function of salary gluttony than an orchestrated destruction of the roster.

What Chicago did do correctly is acquire some young talent (Toews, Kane, Keith, etc.), and then turned them loose to learn, make mistakes and develop chemistry with no expectations of success, and no recriminations for failure.  They learned on the job, and these guys played as well or better learning than the prior roster did at top form. 

I don’t see the nuclear option as either necessary or viable in Columbus.  There is lots of legitimate talent on the big club, and much of that can be leveraged to success.  It will take some difficult decisions, and will ultimately be governed by what talent can be reaped in return (via trade) or elsewhere (free agency.)  Sure, the draft will be important, and if the Blue Jackets can land a top two or three pick, there could be some immediate contribution.  But to count on anything like Pittsburgh experienced is akin to winning the lottery twice — in consecutive weeks.

I think that the mistake a lot of teams in the Blue Jackets’ situation make is looking to hard at individual players and focusing on changing individual pieces of the puzzle.  Instead, I think the approach that is called for is to take a few steps back and look honestly at the skill sets the squad brings to the table — what areas are missing, which are short handed, and which skills represent a surplus?  Of course, character comes into play, as well as attitude.  “Grit” or “stiffness” is of no use if it is not complemented by skill.

 Here’s my take on the various roles, what is missing, and possible ways for the Jackets to address the gaps:

Goaltending:  If Scott Howson is replaced as General Manager, his handling of the goaltending situation will undoubtedly be a key factor in his demise – rightly or wrongly.  He can’t be faulted, necessarily, for being reluctant to give up on a very young goaltender with a Calder Trophy to his credit.   However, Howson was admittedly caught flat-footed in the off-season when goaltenders went off the board quickly.  While we don’t know how good Mark Dekanich will be, due to a spate of injuries, his return in the AHL has not been stellar.  Clearly, he is not going to be a first-line NHL goaltender this year.

Curtis Sanford deserves all the credit in the world for stepping up to the plate boldly, becoming an NHL starter after being slated as no better than the AHL starter/mentor for the season.  After a positively brilliant start, however, he has regressed to the mean.  The weekend games were a good example.  The first goal by Phoenix caught him totally by surprise.  Against San Jose, he made some terrific first saves, but struggled with rebound control all night, and it was just such a rebound that ended up beating him. 

It will be back to the drawing board for Columbus in terms of goaltending, either via the trade or free agency route.  Unless a blockbuster trade can be engineered for a Cory Schneider or equivalent, look for a couple of veteran goaltenders to man the nets while Dekanich and the other youngsters find their sea legs.  It will be more of “goaltending by committee”, again barring an unforseen deal. 

As for Steve Mason, if any value can be received for him in trade, do it. However, the people I have been talking to indicate that there are zero buyers, at any price, for the struggling goaltender.  If not, take a chance and put him through waivers to find his game in Springfield.  I’d hate to see him go via a waiver claim, but the organization simply does not have the luxury of keeping him on the NHL roster any longer with his current mindset and performance level.

Forwards — As a unit, the forwards suffer from difficulty in finishing plays and trouble completing seamless tape-to-tape passes, either in the transmission or reception.  Brassard and Carter are the best passers and puck handlers among the forwards (with Huselius in this group when healthy).  Johansen looks to be ready to join this fraternity soon.   Vermette is a solid all-around player, with the added dimension of excellent defense and faceoff prowess.

Umberger and Prospal are the wild cards among the forwards. After signing a big contract extension, Umberger has struggled mightily all season.  While his vocal leadership and OSU alumni status make him a fan favorite, the fact remains that he is average-to-poor in handling the puck, and is only average on defense.  Prospal has a terrific attitude, and shows great instincts in the offensive zone.  Unfortunately, however, his age is showing as the season passes the halfway point.  His production has dropped precipitously, and he struggles to keep pace in the defensive zone.  As much as he would add to the locker room, it’s tough to see him surviving the trade deadline as a member of the team.

Mark Letestu has shown flashes of excellent play, and the likes of Ryan Russell, Tomas Kubalik, Cam Atkinson, Matt Calvert and Maxsim Mayorov should receive long looks during the second half of the season.  Derek Dorsett plays with a tremendous edge, and has shown more offensive upside and fewer mental errors this season, but still lacks the skillset to consistently convert opportunities that his aggressiveness creates. MacKenzie is good on the forecheck and penalty kill, but has shown little else this year.  After looking like he was creating separation between himself and Dorsett last year, Boll has regressed dramatically.  Pahlsson is a hard worker and great in the faceoff circle, but again lacks that offensive finishing ability. 

Outside of Nash, Carter, Vermette, Brassard & Johansen, the roster is really thin on players who can consistently provide an offensive spark and extended possession.  This causes over-reliance on the top six, and makes the job easier for opponents.

 Nash and Carter are bona fide superstars, and can carry a team a long way if they can a) stay healthy and b) find a way to either work together or dominate separate lines.  Is Carter as discontent in Columbus as rumors would suggest?  Maybe.  If he saw a re-tooling with him as a centerpiece, would that change?  Likely.   Carter is still paying the public relations price for his initial reaction to the trade from Philadelphia, and his quiet demeanor unfortunately plays into the hands of the rumor mongers and conspiracy theorists. 

Keep in mind that Carter has posted Nash-like numbers in his career, and accounts for more than $2 million less per year in cap hit.  With over $13 million invested between the two, the prospects for a trade of either cannot be discounted.  As I’ve said before, nobody should be immune, provided that equal or greater value is received in return. If that comes in the form of a top line goaltender, a defenseman and a prospect, you’d have to consider it.  Ditto for Umberger, as painful as that may be.

The second half of this season is the time to take a page from the Chicago playbook and get the youngsters fully involved.  Keep Kubalik & Russell up, elevate Atkinson & Mayorov.  Let them play, and play, and play. Let them make their mistakes and see how quickly they learn.  Find out who the snipers and playmakers are.  This is particularly true of Atkinson and Mayorov, who were deemed good enough for the NHL roster breaking camp, but never got a full trial.

In the meantime, make some trade deadline deals involving the bottom six, plus Huselius, whose injury history and likely reluctance to take a significant pay cut will mean the end of his days in Columbus.  Maybe you don’t get full value, but you’ll get some assets that can be packaged as draft day nears for other needs.  In short, I’d expect significant shakeup in the corps of forwards, but a core of Johansen, Nash or Carter (or both) and Brassard or Vermette (or both) needs to be maintained. 

Defense — Tyutin takes a lot of grief, but remains one of the most consistent performers around, and his contract is right in the middle of the pack for his defensive status.  Wisniewski has had a nightmare start, with the injury and suspension playing a large part.  His aggressive style was something new to the Blue Jackets, and Arniel didn’t quite know how to package it.  It was interesting to see how his game improved when he was paired with John Moore prior to going down with the fractured ankle.  Moore has looked really good, and is a definite keeper going forward, as is Nikitin, who has shown much greater skill and versatility than advertised at the time of the trade.

If you keep Moore, Wisniewski, Tyutin and Nikitin as your core on the blue line, then Methot, Clitsome and Johnson have to go.   Methot and Clitsome simply have not matured as planned, and Johnson is a liability in the defensive zone.  Methot and Clitsome should bring some kind of return, while clearing over $4 million from the books to be spent elsewhere.  Continue to play Savard for the balance of this season, and experiment with Holden and Goloubef as well. That way, when trade or free agent opportunities arise, the judgments for existing players will be based more on fact, rather than conjecture.

When things go badly for a professional franchise like the Blue Jackets, there is an overwhelming temptation to trash everything and start anew.   General Managers and fans alike tend to resort to the “ability to fog a mirror” test for new players, rather than the necessary critical examination of the skillsets needed and offered. The nuclear option sounds attractive, but it simply doesn’t pass muster, absent extraordinary circumstances.

Obviously, all of this will take time, but I am hopeful that the process will begin shortly.  While these decisions should not be rushed, there is also no point in needless delay.  Fans will be patient (there’s that word again), but only so long as they see material action and tangible results.   Given the lofty expectations coming out of camp, this has been the most disappointing season in franchise history.  The ownership group has the power to turn negatives into positives, but only if the process starts immediately.

Obviously, volumes can be written on all of this — and it may seem that I have already done that.  The point is that the focus must be forward, and it must encompass the entire hockey organization.  We have heard a lot about “identity”, but that is a misnomer, in my book.  Successful teams today have to play a variety of styles, using skill, speed and size as the situation dictates.  Find the people with the skillsets, put them in a coherent system where they are empowered to use their skills, and success will come.  Let’s see if the Blue Jackets can find their focus.

 

January 13, 2012

Scary Hockey

Contrary to popular belief, that is not a picture of Steve Mason’s mask after his last outing . . .    But, it is Friday the 13th after all, so time to have some fun with things and look at some of the good, bad, ugly, silly and scary things that have been happening of late, both in Columbus and elsewhere.

This started out to be a rather detailed look at the roster, and what moves might be forthcoming.  As I got into it more, however, I decided that I was really violating my own rule — and beliefs — because discussing only one side of the equation is meaningless.  Again, almost everybody can be had — for a price — barring extraordinary circumstances.  Additionally, as we discussed on the Fire the Cannon podcast last night, I really think that the GM situation needs to be stabilized before significant player moves are made.  I suspect that Craig Patrick is working some things behind the scenes, but I don’t have any hard facts to back that up, other than the circumstances the club finds itself in, the adoption of an interim coach for the balance of the season, and the overwhelming feeling that Patrick’s presence was felt in the decision to replace Scott Arniel.  Just a hunch.

I’ll do some in-depth roster analysis in a couple of weeks, after Todd Richards gets a little time with the club, the trade deadline gets a little closer, and word leaks out from more clubs as to who might be in play.  In the meantime, there’s plenty to talk about.

  • The latest bit of bad fortune to strike the club came yesterday, when R.J. Umberger had to leave practice early, due to the now-infamous “concussion-like symptoms.”  He apparently did not feel at full strength against Chicago (but scored anyway), and attributed it to the long road trip and simple fatigue.  No timetable exists for his return as yet.
  • Jeff Carter was officially put on IR today, with his condition listed as “week to week”  with his shoulder injury.  I still think it was a bad call by the NHL to give Beauchemin a pass on that hit — he was instigating all night and the Carter hit appeared to me to have an intent to injure.  I’d like to see Shanahan and the league look at the whole course of conduct in a game as part of evaluating discipline.  Some guys who skim under the radar right now might find themselves in the cross-hairs.
  • Staying with the scary theme — this statistic, circulated by the Blue Jackets PR department, really caught my eye:  In games where either Carter or Wizniewski is out, the Blue Jackets have a record of 3-17-1.  They are 8-9-4 with both in the lineup. 
  • Dane Byers was recalled from Springfield to take Umberger’s spot on the roster, and that’s all I’m going to say about that . . .
  • Coach Todd Richards put the lads through a lengthy and spirited workout yesterday, according to reports.  Many noted a significant difference in pace and tone from his predecessor.
  • Staying with Richards, it was good to hear him have positive things to say about Brassard’s performance in Chicago.  Richards likes the Brassard – Nash – Prospal grouping, and also the Johansen-Vermette-Kubalik line, and we’ll see both tonight against Phoenix.  It also looks like Moore will pair with Savard, and Methot with Johnson on the blue line.  I’m gulping a little hard over that last pair — I’d still like to see them tinker with splitting up Tyutin and Nikitin for a bit.  (Thanks to Rob Mixer for the lineup previews)
  • Also from Rob Mixer –  some scary Phoenix statistics:  the Coyotes are 84-9-13 under Dave Tippett when they score the first goal, and 11-1-1 this year when leading after one period.  Conversely, in the not-so-scary department, the Yotes are 0-10-0 when trailing at the end of one.  Moral of story — jump on them early.
  • Curtis Sanford goes between the pipes tonight.
  • Lest anybody think that the Blue Jackets are the only team with some scary things going on, I offer for your consideration the Montreal Canadiens.   Let’s see — they fire their old coach just before a game, and replace him with a guy who generates an immediate firestorm, because he does not speak French. (Paging Guy Boucher, Guy Boucher — white courtesy telephone please . . . )  Of course, the club sits in 12th place in the East, closer to 15th than to 8th, which has Hab’s Nation in an uproar.  That pervasive sense of disgust extended to Mike Cammalleri, who went public with his feelings, calling out the “losers” he plays with. 

    Of course, it was total coincidence, then, that Cammalleri is pulled off the ice in the middle of a game last night — within 24 hours of his outburst — sent back to his hotel, and told  that he was traded.  It turned out that Cammalleri was sent packing to Calgary, together with the rights to goalie Karri Ramo and a 5th round pick in 2012.  Coming the other direction are Rene Bourque, Patrick Holland and the Flames’ 2nd round pick in 2013.

    That the Canadiens managed to save $3 million or so on the cap hit in the deal is lost in the transparently retaliatory nature of the deal.  Gauthier swears that the deal had been in the work “for months”, and he apparently put a clause in the deal requiring Calgary GM Jay Feaster to play along.  Feaster said that the deal was held up by Bourque’s recent five – game suspension.  Riiiiight . . . and I suppose you didn’t inhale, either? 

    Whatever the truth may or may not be, it was bad taste and showmanship to pull Cammalleri out in the middle of a game, in obvious retribution for his earlier comments.  I’ll give the edge to Montreal in this trade, but for me it’s more about how it was done than what was done.  See, the Blue Jackets aren’t the only club with head scratching moments.

  • The club will play a tribute video to Rusty Klesla during the 1st Period tonight, as this is his first return trip to Nationwide since his trade.  No word if Doug MacLean will introduce the piece as “The Greatest Video Ever Made.”
  • I’ll be fascinated to see how the squad reacts tonight for Richards, with a bit of rest and a hard practice under their belts. It should be fun to watch.

Bundle up, drive carefully, and I’ll see you at Nationwide tonight and tomorrow  for some hopefully entertaining hockey.  More coming — stay tuned.

 

 

 

 

January 11, 2012

Re-Tooling Begins

Interim Head Coach Todd Richards was greeted to the fold with a 5 – 2 loss in Chicago last night, and this morning the various factions are lining up in an effort to show what the firing of Scott Arniel means.  Those suggesting that Arniel was a patsy for underperforming prima donnas are pointing at the loss with glee, suggesting that the loss proves that coaching was not the issue.  Others are pointing to some of the positives to show that coaching was an issue. 

Of course, both positions are ludicrous. Nothing is proven by last night’s game for a head coach who hasn’t had a full meeting with his team, let alone a full practice.  His line choices and TOI distribution might provide some hints as to where he is going, but that is all.  The team will re-group today after a long road trip, then have their first full practice under Richards tomorrow.  They then face a back-to-back on Friday and Saturday, which should be more illustrative of where things are headed.  Still, I’m looking at the next 10 – 20 games to provide more reliable indicia of progress.

Here are some observations about the game, what it showed, and what it did not show:

  • Of course, one of the more publicized moves was the elevation of Derick Brassard to center on the top line, after suffering wildly inconsistent treatment under Arniel’s management.  He had 19:29 of ice time, and created a lot of opportunities. With Carter out, he is the best puck handler on the club, and showed the ability to create space and put passes on the tape (where they were unfortunately mishandled more often than not).  Brass creates a lot from below the opponent’s net, but he focuses so much on the passing part, he doesn’t put himself in a position to shoot nearly enough.  Case in point:  Nash had nine shots on goal last night, Brassard and Prospal only one each. 
  • Continuing with the top line for a minute, they were hurt last night by Prospal.  I know –  I love the guy too — but he was really laboring in Chicago.  He couldn’t keep up with the pace in any of the zones, and was not strong on the puck.  42 games into the season, staring at his 37th birthday next month, Prospal may be feeling his age a bit.  Hopefully not, as he has been a life saver for the CBJ this season, both on and off the ice.  Still, the net result at the United Center was a line dominated by Nash, enabling the defense to key on him and ignore the others.  At even strength, Nash is not the best at setting up his teammates, so these things will happen when one of the others has a down game.  It would be interesting to see a Nash–Carter–Brassard line, with Brass moved out to wing.
  • Prospal was not the only one lagging last night — legs were an issue for many.  There was lots of reaching instead of skating, and more hesitation than aggression.  I’ll provide a temporary pass, based upon the long road trip and the off-ice turmoil, but consistency in skating is going to go a long way toward helping this club. 
  • Defensively, things are still a work in progress.  Nikitin had an off-night, and Savard regressed a bit after looking good in his first appearance.   The scratching of Clitsome was undoubtedly intended to send a message, which it hopefully did.  Johnson was typically good in the offensive end (2 assists), but marginal to poor in the defensive zone.  Methot spanned the spectrum last night, and Moore was more good than bad.  In his post-game remarks, Richards alluded to some adjustments on the blue line.  Again, it might be worth splitting up Tyutin and Nikitin while Wisniewski is out.  Perhaps Tyutin – Moore, Nikitin–Savard, Methot — Clitsome/Johnson?  Just a thought . . .
  • I thought Vermette and Umberger had their best games in a long time, and when his legs were moving, Johansen was a real presence.  His positioning in the crease opposite Umberger contributed to the first goal (narrowly avoiding a goaltender interference or ‘in the crease’ call).  Kubalik was rough — he had good effort and positioning in the offensive zone, but could not handle the puck cleanly.  He was a bit slow to react in the defensive zone, which contributed to at least one of the Chicago goals.
  • Sanford started really strong, then faded.   Ben Smith’s goal was an awful one.  Still, he was not the reason for the loss — he saved some point-blank opportunities early that could have made this one a runaway.
  • Dorsett, Johansen, Boll, etc. saw reduced ice time last night, but I’m not convinced this was a qualitative judgment on Richards’ part.  With Chicago’s speed, I would expect to see less of those guys in any event.
  • Last night’s game was a perfect example of why I hate plus/minus as a statistic.  Take Nash — he was a minus-2.  He was on the ice for the shorthanded goal — in which he had no role, and for the empty netter — where again he had no part.  Ditto Brassard.  Moore gets saddled with a minus-2 for being on the ice when Sanford gives up a horrible goal and for covering Vermette’s man after Vermie’s stick broke on the second goal.  That stat drives me crazy!  (I know, it’s a short drive . . . )
  • Did anybody else think that Scott Howson looked awful last night during his interview with Rimer?  The stress is really beginning to show.  I know that it is likely time for him to move on, but you have to feel sorry for him.  After making what seemed like tremendous moves on paper in the off-season, to have things blow up so spectacularly has to be devastating, no matter how long you’ve been around the business.  Unsurprisingly, he had absolutely nothing of substance to say.  That’s not a criticism — I don’t fault GM’s for playing things close to the vest on personnel moves. 
  • Speaking of Rimer — I think Jeff needs a bit of a rest.  We had Seabrook making stick saves, and a plethora of other “Huh?” moments last night.  Get a good night’s sleep, Rims. 
  • I liked how Richards handled himself on the bench and in the post game comments.  Calm, pointed and in control.  Umberger’s comments echo that impression.

Tomorrow, we’ll look at the roster in a bit more depth as the trade deadline starts to become visible on the horizon.  Friday I’ll have a piece on why the NHLPA is blowing smoke over its objections to the realignment plan.  Stay tuned.

January 10, 2012

The Morning After

by Jeff Little — Categories: NHL Coaching, The Game of Hockey — Tags: , 3 Comments

In December 1972, The Poseidon Adventure hit movie theatres, and became the second highest grossing film released that year — beaten out only by a little piece called The Godfather.  It was the second in a series of “disaster movies” that proved highly profitable for Hollywood (Airport preceded it, and Earthquake and The Towering Inferno followed).  The theme song for the movie, The Morning After, became a hit for Maureen McGovern during 1973. 

Given the events of yesterday, the opportunity to use both the song and the metaphor of a disaster movie was too delicious to pass up.  So enjoy the clip, and then we’ll cover some things to look for today as the Blue Jackets face off against the Blackhawks.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcLazPauA1c]  

Back to hockey.  Starting tonight, Todd Richards is going to be under the microscope, as every CBJ fan with a gripe against Arniel is going to be looking for his/her pet peeve to be addressed.  He’s not new to the organization, so there is no “ramp up” time involved.  While Richards was appropriately understated and respectful of his predecessor in his comments yesterday — claiming that only ‘tweaks’ were needed — I suspect that more fundamental alterations will be made.  Here are things I am looking for over the next 10 games:

  • Goaltending — will all pretense be abandoned, and Sanford clearly installed as the #1 tender until Howson (or his successor) can engineer something?
  • Lines – With Carter & Letestu hurt, there are some challenges here, but not dissimilar from what Arniel faced at the beginning of the year.  How will he use players like Brassard & Vermette?  Will he roll three scoring lines?  Where will Kubalik fit in?  Will he allow lines time to bond and develop chemistry?
  • Pairings – Again, with Wisniewski hurt, the situation is similar to the beginning of the year. Will he keep the Tyutin/Nikitin pairing, or divide them up to spread some skill among the pairs?  How will he use John Moore & Marc Methot?  Will Savard get the nod over Aaron Johnson? 
  • TOI — Will the Dorsett/Pahlsson line (assuming they stay together) continue to get such significant TOI? How will the “crunch times” at the end of the periods and in key situations be handled?  Will the defensive TOI be evened out?
  • Special Teams — Will Nash see some more time on the PK?  Will we see a change in the frequency of “dump ins” on the power play? 
  • Tactics — Will Richards open things up a bit, and facilitate some breakouts and odd-man rushes for the offense?  Will the defense be more assertive, and not allow as much room in their own zone?  Will we see less of the “prevent defense” in the third period?
  • Youth — Will Richards prevail upon Howson to bring up folks like Atkinson, Mayorov, Holden or Goloubef?   Will Johansen  be given a bit more free rein? 
  • Temperament — While I suspect this will not be an issue, given his two years in Minnesota and his “spokesman” role for the in-game bench conversations during the broadcasts, his first few pressers will be interesting to watch.  I’ll also be looking for his level of engagement, both with the players and his staff, during the games.

Now that the first domino has tipped, we can start putting more attention back to the game itself, and less to the off-ice machinations. While I am still convinced that more is coming – a lot more — I think the focus now needs to be on the players.  While I’d anticipate a “bounce” effect, I’ll be more interested in seeing how they respond to whatever changes Richards puts in place.  In my relatively uninformed view, I suspect that if Richards shows a bit more trust in the team, and allows them to play a more open game, some of the guys who have been struggling will shine.  Maybe not — but there is value in finding that out as well. 

Finally, I want to close with a few observations for the mindless trolls who are using this sequence of events to dump on Columbus as a hockey market.   Take a close look at the attendance figures for the NHL this season.  Sure, the Blue Jackets rank 27th, but are significantly ahead of Dallas, Phoenix and the Islanders on a per-game basis.  They are also within a few hundred of the next several places, which is remarkable, considering the on-ice performance and the club’s history.  Because of the disparate size of arenas, the Blue Jackets could never be higher than about 10th in the league, so that has to factor into the equation as well.

The online activity of Blue Jackets fans is among the highest in the league, and anyone who attended either of the playoff games in 2009, or the draft in 2007, can attest to the enthusiasm of the fan base.  As I noted in an earlier piece, the Blue Jackets are not alone in making coaching changes, and if an overhaul is needed, then get to it.  That says nothing about Columbus as a hockey market.

Given the new arena deal, the infusion of capital and ownership participation from Nationwide, and the clubs commitment to stay for the long haul, the rest of the league is just going to have to get used to having Columbus around.   The ship may be upside down right now, but we’ll get through the night.  Deal with it.  

 

January 9, 2012

And Then There Were Eight . . .

Forgive the thinly veiled Agatha Christie reference,  but it seemed appropriate today, in which the NHL season reaches the precise halfway mark, with the 615th game being played in a schedule of 1,230 total games.  It is also the day that the Blue Jackets announced that Scott Arniel has been relieved of his duties, and that assistant coach Todd Richards would assume the “Interim” tag for the balance of the season.  As such, Richards becomes the eighth head coach or interim head coach in franchise history.

Aaron Portzline of the Dispatch broke the news at about 9:40 this morning.  However, in a statement released later by the Blue Jackets, Scott Howson said that he had advised Arniel of the decision last night.  Arniel left early this morning from Los Angeles, presumably returning home to Winnipeg.  Howson also told Portzline that there “were no plans as of now” for Arniel to stay with the organization in another capacity.

Naturally, the reactions have been swift, vociferous and numerous.  Scott Burnside of ESPN.com, never a fan of the organization, represents one extreme of the reactions by suggesting that others believe the NHL should buy the team and fold it.    Others range from “Why now?  It’s too late.” to “Hooray!” to “Howson & Priest need to go next!” to “It wasn’t Arniel’s fault, and he is better off without the job.”  While there are elements of truth embedded in each of these reactions (some more deeply embedded than others), there is also a lot of hyperbole being flung around.  Time to take a bit of a deep breath and sort out where things stand today, and what is likely to come downstream.

First and foremost, today is not a cause for celebration.  A man lost his job today, and that is never, ever a joyous event.  Sure, I strongly believed that Scott Arniel needed to be replaced as coach.  I questioned his approach as early as October 28, strongly suggested that a replacement might be in order on November 3, and made an outright call for his dismissal on November 11.  In the middle came the 9 – 2 Philadelphia atrocity on November 5.  The guys over at NHL Home Ice were talking today about how everyone came into work there the next day, expecting Arniel to be fired then.  Here we are, two months later, and the deed was finally done, just about two months later.  We’ll get to the impact of that delay in a bit.

While the franchise will be better off without him at the helm, Scott Arniel was not the sole reason for the Blue Jackets’ miseries this season. However, neither was he an innocent victim, martyred by a horde of non-responsive players.  Arniel had difficulty dealing with adversity, made ill-considered personnel and system judgments, appeared alternately disconnected and without answers, and finally poisoned his relationship with the media.  Sure, there have been injuries, suspensions and players not playing to potential — but coaches are paid to address these things.  It all seemed too much for Arniel, who is a very nice guy away from the ice, but needs some more seasoning before assuming another NHL head coaching slot.

That the Blue Jackets have now appointed the eighth skipper of S.S. Columbus is not a badge of pride, to be sure.  However, those bandying about this number are also gilding the lily just a bit.  This number includes three interim coaches (Richards, Noel (24 games) and Agnew (5 games)).  MacLean’s tenure of 79 games should probably be viewed as interim as well, given that it was primarily an exercise in ego and cost savings.  Ditto the original elevation of Gallant, who was promoted from within for similar reasons, particularly considering the looming lockout.   In truth, the Blue Jackets have had only three full-blown coaching searches — those resulting in the hiring of Dave King, Ken Hitchcock & Scott Arniel.

Of course, bringing up Ken Hitchcock’s name these days is a sore subject, due to his 18-5-3 record since taking the reins in St. Louis.  However, Hitch serves as a good example of what has been wrong with the Blue Jackets hiring of head coaches.  It’s not that these guys are bad coaches — it’s that there proved to be a mismatch between the players available and the coaching styles.  Phrased another way — Columbus has had precisely the right coaches at precisely the wrong times.

Dave King is known throughout the professional, amateur and international hockey community as an outstanding teacher of the game of hockey.  He can coax out the talent lurking in young players and possesses the maturity and understanding to help youngsters deal with adversity.  Unfortunately, as the Blue Jackets’ first coach, he was handed a roster full of aging, cast-off veterans (as is normal for expansion clubs), and never really had the chance to work his magic with young talent.  He would have been far better off with the club that Ken Hitchcock inherited — full of youth, better talent, but very green and raw.

Hitchcock of course, brought order from chaos in terms of his rigid, hard checking, defense-first system, which was an easy sell in Columbus, as it more closely approximated college football.  Unfortunately, a lot of the strategies and tactics that formed the foundation of Hitchcock’s system were rapidly becoming obsolete in the wake of the lockout, and the rule changes eliminating the grabbing and holding that his clubs in Dallas and Philadelphia had thrived upon.   The lone playoff appearance was engineered largely by a rookie goaltender who threw an other-worldly 10 shutouts at the league.  Hitch would have been dynamite with the first club, and would have provided structure from the outset.  Of course, it would have been interesting to see how he worked with Doug MacLean over the long haul.

Many fan comments today rue the day the CBJ fired Hitchcock, and point to his success this season as proof that it was a bad move.  That is a severe case of “euphoric recall”, which occurs when the misery of today exceeds the misery of the event you are trying to recall.  Just because it may not have been as horrific does not mean the earlier event was good.  Hitchcock’s system crumbled as other team found their legs in the new NHL, and while Howson was building for youth and speed, Hitch wanted age and brawn.  In the process, the young core of the club was badly alienated and the locker room had become toxic. Interestingly, and ironically,  Hitchcock has recently commented that he used the last two years to modify his approach to youngsters, and to the game in general.

Enter Scott Arniel, the first coach hand-picked by GM Scott Howson.  He brought some NHL experience as an assistant, some head coaching experience in the AHL, youth and a self-described aggressive approach to the game that seemed to fit with the youth of the organization, and the desire to adopt a more up-tempo style of play.  (Of course, Arniel was, in fact, Howson’s second choice, after Guy Boucherwho declined the Jackets’ offer in favor of Steve Yzerman and the Tampa Bay Lightning.  Rumors have Boucher in trouble in Tampa, but a safe landing spot in Montreal, where he conveniently has none of the bi-lingual issues.)

Unfortunately, Arniel did not bring what was advertised, nor did good fortune smile upon him (or the club).  After a 14-6 start in 2010-11, the wheels fell off — and Arniel was 31-54-18 after that point.  More than the pure numbers, I think the fatal elements of his performance related to decision-making, blame-shifting and an inability to take charge.  In retrospect, a more seasoned hand at dealing with injuries, a large influx of new talent and adversity would likely have been in order.

That, of course, brings us full circle back to Scott Howson, the man who hired and fired Arniel.  In comments made public by the Blue Jackets, Howson indicated that he made the decision to fire Arniel “this weekend”, and flew to Los Angeles on Saturday, with the intention of delivery the news when he did — after the Anaheim game.

There are a couple of disturbing things about Howson’s statements today.  First, he asserts that this was his decision alone, without pressure from above.  That’s a big shift from his comments on December 18th, in which he unequivocally proclaimed that “coaching is not an issue” with the Blue Jackets.  Uh, that’s a helluva turnaround in attitude in 21 days — going from “not an issue” to “fired”.   That sort of thing sets my Spider-sense tingling, and I’m not sure I’m buying it.

Equally disturbing to me was Howson’s explanation of how he approached the season.  He divided the season into thirds, and felt it was unfair to judge based on the first third, due to the Wisniewski suspension, the injury to Carter, etc.  Fair enough, I can buy that — maybe.  However, it was his next comment that set me running for the hills (referring to his “middle third” of the season to date): “I thought we were playing pretty good ’till the middle of December. “ 

Now, I know reasonable minds can differ about a lot of things, but I have a hard time believing that anyone would characterize any prolonged stretch of Blue Jackets hockey this season as “good.”  Columbus was 2-10-1 over the first 13 games, 6-6-2 over the next 14, and is 3-9-2 for the most recent 14 games.  Sure, you can make that middle stretch a bit better (and the other two worse) by moving your time frame a bit, but that is rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. The fact remains that the majority of the other six coaches who lost their jobs this season had better records than the Blue Jackets best stretch this season.  Ponder that a moment . . .

I don’t agree with those who assert that firing the coach at this point is useless, and that because it wasn’t done earlier, the season is lost.  As I have mentioned several time, there are lots of things to be salvaged from a full half of the season.  Richards will get a tryout (with Wisniewski and Carter both injured), and players can be viewed through different glasses.  Youngsters can be brought up and evaluated, all of which can guide trading, drafting and free agent strategy.  41 games is a long time, and to waste it would be criminal.

The $64,000 question, of course, is whether Howson will be around to make those trading, drafting and free agency decisions.  Craig Patrick has been quiet — too quiet by half — and the decision to immediately make Richards the interim for the rest of the season could be viewed as suggesting that the organization wants something else in place first.  After all, there are several experienced coaching candidates out there, so if Howson was simply going to do a coaching search, I would expect that to be underway.  (Richards is a candidate for the permanent slot).

Most all of the observers and analysts I’ve listened to or read today believe that Howson is history, due to the delay in firing Howson, the inability to deal effectively with the goaltending situation, and some unwise contracts.  I’m more willing to give Howson a bit of a pass on the goaltending issue, simply because his plan never has had the chance to play out.  Dekanich  — the intended heir — has been injured twice, and the current starting goaltender was intended to be the #3 guy.  Did he stick with Mason too long?  In retrospect, yes.  However, it’s tough to totally give up on a young goaltender with a Calder Trophy on his mantle, especially when you bring in a top goaltending coach (Ian Clark) to help.

Howson’s sins have largely been ones of omission — failing to act quickly and decisively when the franchised needed him to.  He brought in some terrific talent, had the predictable number of missteps, given how completely he had to transform the roster, and bolstered the minor leagues with some promising draft picks, after the arid wasteland that Doug MacLean left.  Still, Howson misjudged Clitsome and Methot,  did not act quickly enough to secure goaltending help, and has made some really troubling, disconnected statements in defending what is largely indefensible.

My bet is that if you liked 2007, you’ll love 2012.   This time, however, I think Craig Patrick will be calling the shots on the new GM (and it could be him), the coach, and the transactions.  I sense strings being pulled from above, and I truly hope that is the case, as ownership –both existing and new (i.e. Nationwide) —  need to weigh in strongly, and the sooner the better.

For now, it is Todd Richard’s time behind the bench.  In Minnesota, the knock on him was that he was too much of a “player’s coach”, and had difficulty clamping down.   That won’t work in Columbus either, but people learn and grow, so let’s not judge.  He has a mess to undo, and it will be very instructive to see how he goes about it — who plays, where they play and how much they play.   Half the season left, during which we should discover a lot about what needs to be done.

January 6, 2012

Where Vultures Dare . . .

When you’re a team in the position of the Columbus Blue Jackets — or a fan of such a team — these are difficult times.  The color and joviality of the holidays has given way to the cold realities of winter.  Though mathematical elimination has not occurred, any mention of the “P” word is greeted with guffaws.  The proverbial Sword of Damocles hangs over the heads of players, coaches and front office personnel — or at least we presume it does — and the hope that meaningful change will soon occur is the prime attraction for many fans at this point.

Around the league, fans and General Managers hover and circle like vultures on the thermal, waiting to see what kind of fire sale Columbus might offer up to fuel other teams’ playoff chances.  An ill-conceived and timed article seeking Rick Nash’s view on waiving his NMC predictably bred a flurry of rumors that Nash was soon to be exiting stage left.

As if to add insult to injury, word comes tonight that the NHLPA has inexplicably refused consent to the NHL’s realignment plan, putting the Blue Jackets’ relief from an onerous travel burden on hold, and casting shadows over the forthcoming CBA negotiations.  At least Columbus is not Winnipeg, who will be consigned to another year in the Southeast Division.  Go ahead, keep piling on . . .

One wonders what the NHLPA hopes to gain by withholding consent to the realignment plan.  Sufficient numbers of its membership will benefit from the new arrangement, and few will be really harmed — which casts doubt on this move as a serious substantive objection.  Maybe it’s a pouting gesture born of a feeling that the NHLPA was not sufficiently involved from the beginning.   More likely it is simply Donald Fehr flexing muscle in one of the few areas that he can right now.  There is no gold mine media contract to divvy up, and players are faring extremely well in the salary cap world, contrary to the ‘gloom and doom’ forecasts of the lockout. 

No, this smacks of a symbolic shot across the bow from the players signalling that their concurrence in issues may not be presumed.  The NHL has responded with strong language, falling short of DEFCON 2, showing that it does not appreciate mean-spirited showmanship.  If realignment is truly axed for next season, it is a shame that teams like Winnipeg, Columbus and Detroit — and their fans — will suffer as pawns in a larger game of chess.  It’s far too early to make dire predictions for the CBA, but this move was a very bad PR blunder by the NHLPA, and it will curry them no favor down the line.   Hopefully cooler heads will prevail in the near future. 

Of course, the possibility still exists that the prospect of moving a single team in each direction would remain a theoretical possibility, which would provide a glimmer of hope for Columbus.  I’m also not necessarily convinced that the realignment plan is dead for next year.  I doubt seriously that the NHL would have put the NHLPA deadline for consent that close to the real ‘drop dead’ date.  They had to at least suspect the possibility that the players would come back with a request for tweaks to the plan (and if they didn’t, they are fools).  So, let’s see what emerges once the posturing is done.

Locally, Dispatch scribe Michael Arace formally jumped on the “Arniel Must Go” bandwagon this morning.  He makes some nice points, but frankly nothing that hasn’t been pointed out here and elsewhere for several weeks now.  However, in a “One Paper” town like Columbus (apologies to The Other Paper), and one where the newspaper company also controls much of the broadcast media and holds an ownership stake in the team, that is a significant move.  It is one from which Arniel is unlikely to recover, and that is in the best interests of the team, provided that the replacement is carefully chosen, potentially by a new GM.  As I’ve written, I agree with Arace’s premise that a total nuclear option is unnecessary, once the proper front office/bench people are in place.

Last night’s game against San Jose was a classic example of what is wrong behind the bench.   The Blue Jackets played well, for the most part, though they were lethargic in the second period.  San Jose used its size and experience to maintain possession and create chances, but the Blue Jackets negated many of those chances, showed good transition game, and had superb goaltending from Sanford.  The difference maker was a baseball bat swing by a well-covered Joe Thornton — and there just isn’t much you can do about that.

It was another game where offense could not be generated, and while San Jose earns full marks for defense, Arniel’s thumbprint is all  over the offensive short-circuit.  While Nash and Carter were the constants on the top line, I saw Johansen, Umberger, Brassard and Letestu fill the third spot at various times.  Jared Boll was on the second line — the most serious miscasting since David Niven as James Bond –  the offensive engine predictably never got in tune.  Arniel seems incapable of allowing the players to adapt to the ebbs and flows of game pace and find their opportunities.  It was a tight contest, and one goal would have wildly swung the momentum.  It was not to be.

A little noticed report from both NHL Home Ice and ESPN suggests that Matthew Hulsizer’s bid to purchase the St. Louis Blues has been terminated by the NHL, apparently due to problems with the financing package.  While some sources indicate that the plan could still be rescued, Hulsizer appears to have some of the Blue Jackets’ luck in seeking to acquire a club. 

Speaking of the Blue Jackets’ luck , more misfortune fell upon them with the news that Mark Letestu suffered a broken hand in last night’s game.  While discounted by some, he brings sound fundamental hockey to the club.  Nothing flashy, but he is positionally solid, has good passing and shooting skills, and more ice awareness than I expected when he arrived from Pittsburgh. 

In a series of quizzical moves, the Blue Jackets called up Ryan Russell to replace Letestu.  Nothing against Russell, but we’ve been there.  What about Kubalik, Atkinson or Drazenovic?  Haven’t they earned a look?  At the same time, the club (finally) put Kristian Huselius on injured reserve, retroactive to early December.  James Wisniewski was put on IR earlier, so two roster spots remain vacant.  Is that the sign of something coming?  Maybe.  The timing seems odd, but I’ve long since given up attempting  to predict Howson’s moves.

As the old proverb goes -  “‘Tis always darkest just before the dawn.”  This too shall pass, and something good will emerge from all of this misery.  Time to stop feeling sorry for ourselves, start ignoring the idiots from other fan bases who ridicule us and drool over Rick Nash, and start flinging some rocks at those vultures.  I understand they taste a lot like chicken . . .

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